December 21st is the OFFICIAL first day of Winter and the shortest day of the year, however, once it decides to start snowing is when many people start to call it Winter weather.

I guess what we should be wondering is, when is the first snowfall going to be in Iowa? Not to be in a hurry to break out the snowblower, but I would like to plan my outdoor activities accordingly.

Getty Images/iStockphoto
Getty Images/iStockphoto

The almanac predicts the "first bite of winter" is expected to come earlier than last year's.

Two-Month Weather Prediction

Here are the predicted Iowa weather patterns for the next two months from Almanac.

DatesWeather Conditions
Oct 1-9Rainy periods, cold
Oct 10-14Sunny, turning warm
Oct 15-22Rain, then sunny, warm
Oct 23-31Rainy periods, mild
Octobertemperature 58° (2° above avg.)
precipitation 3.5" (2" above avg. north, 1" below south)
Nov 1-3Showers, warm
Nov 4-6Sunny, chilly
Nov 7-9Rainy periods, mild
Nov 10-17Showers, then sunny, turning colder
Nov 18-22Snowy periods, very cold
Nov 23-30Rain and snow showers, mild, then snow, frigid
Novembertemperature 42° (1° below avg.)
precipitation 2" (avg.)

The first predicted talk of snow appears in late November, sometime between the 18th - 22nd.

Surprised woman in front of a frozen auto in the driveway
Getty Images/iStockphoto

Almanac Winter Forcast Prediction

According to the Almanac, the 2022-2023 General Winter Forecast predicts, "Winter will be colder than normal, on average, with the coldest periods in late November, early December, early to mid-January, and mid-to-late February. Precipitation and snowfall will be above average in the east and below average in the west. The snowiest periods will be in late November, early to mid-January, and February."

National Weather Service Archives

The National Weather Service Archives show that in the Quad Cities the first snow above 0.1" usually comes sometime around November 21st, the earliest being September 25th, 1942. The latest above 0.1" didn't come until January 4th, but that was back in 1913.

As far as measurable above an inch of snow, the average date of arrival for the Quad Cities is December 5th. The earliest snowfall we've ever seen above an inch, came on October 18th, 1972, when 2" of the fluffy stuff came down on us.

The latest in the season that the Quad Cities has had above an inch of snow, was February 10th in 1944 - at that point, just save it up for next year, right? Don't waste it at the end of the season.

National Weather Service
National Weather Service

Dwyer & Michaels Morning Show "Predictions"

The morning show decided to place bets on when they "predict" the first snowfall in Iowa will happen. (These are fun guesses and not factual predictions in any way)
Dwyer: November 28th
Michaels: December 2nd
Hairball: October 30th
Goose: January 4th
Megan: November 3rd
Stay warm Iowa!
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Signs a Long Hard Winter is Ahead

Have you seen any "evidence" of a harsh winter ahead? Let's take a look at some Midwest folklore stories that could predict how early or rough our winter will be.

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