A “30% Chance of Rain” Doesn’t Mean “There’s A 30% Chance of Rain”

My entire life has apparently been a lie.

When I've watched the weather forecast over the years, I always heard "30% chance of rain" and thought that means I have a 3 in 10 chance of getting rained on today. It turns out I'm not even close.

TikTok user @sydjkell answered a question of "What is something you found out late in life that you should've known earlier on?"

@sydjkell#stitch with @sooklyn #ColorCustomizer I have toooo many of these. I’ll do another weather one. #embarassing #iwastodayyearsold♬ original sound - Syd

Now, if Sydjkell's explanation was confusing to you, the Weather Channel decided to hop on their own TikTok and explain it themselves.

@weatherchannel What is your chance of precip? It’s complicated... @syd@sydjkell #to##todayyearsold ##weather ##askameteorologist ##fyp ♬ I'M CONFUSED - Brian C Rice

So it's a 30% chance of rain unless you don't move or there isn't a 30% chance of rain.

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