NWS Updates ‘Modest Increase’ to 2022 QC Spring Flood Outlook

We told you earlier this month about the National Weather Service's 2022 Spring flood outlook for the Quad Cities. Late last week, they updated it to include a 'modest increase'.

The update from NWS adds that, since the first outlook was released a couple of weeks ago, there has been "a modest increase in probabilities for minor and moderate flooding on the Mississippi River".

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NWS says this will be determined by snowmelt along the upper Mississippi basin, along with any precipitation that's yet to come. The risk of flooding isn't high, according to the update, but it could still occur, depending on what happens with those two factors.

The threat of flooding is lowered by the snow cover and snow water amount being below normal in this area. But, according to NWS, the upper reaches of the Mississippi River basin are above normal. If that snow melts quickly over ground that's still frozen, it could increase the flood risk for us. How quickly that snow melts will be a big factor in determining flood possibility and severity.

There are other factors that are decreasing the possibility of flooding. NWS says abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions lower the chance of flooding. River levels in the upper Mississippi watershed are near normal, which gives any heavy spring rain somewhere to go.

For now, NWS says the weather pattern is expected to be active in the next few weeks, producing rain, snow, or both. That plus the rate of snowmelt in the northern part of the river will be critical to watch in the coming weeks.